글로벌 주식 관찰자

관세 관련 행정명령의 증가는 정책의 뚜렷한 변화를 시사합니다. 현재 당사의 우량 포트폴리오에 속한 대부분의 기업들은 서비스업에 편중되어 있어 관세의 직접적인 영향은 제한적일 것으로 예상합니다. 반면, 국내 제조, 높은 매출 총이익률, 그리고 가격 결정력은 포트폴리오 내 생산업체들의 영향을 완화할 수 있습니다. 경기 둔화가 발생할 경우, 당사의 우량 포트폴리오의 실적은 시장보다 더 회복력이 있을 것으로 예상합니다.

오늘날 빠르게 변화하는 경제에서 기술은 산업 분류를 초월합니다. 디지털 통합, AI, 클라우드 컴퓨팅이 경쟁 우위의 필수 동력으로 자리 잡으면서 기술은 성장 궤도를 재편하고 운영 효율성을 재정의하고 있습니다.

While the US economy continues to look healthier than other developed markets, we think positive surprises may be tougher to find than in the last two years. Elevated equity multiples, modest VIX and BBB-rated bond spreads at their lowest levels this century suggest the market doesn’t share those doubts. As investors, we prefer steady compounding through decent top-line growth and resilient earnings at a reasonable multiple.

Markets have become increasingly charged, unpredictable and narrow, evidenced by the risk-on rally in response to Donald Trump’s presidential victory and the dominance of US tech giants, aka the "Magnificent Seven". For a distorted index which appears to be priced for perfection, any knock or fade to earnings expectations may spell trouble —presenting risks for index huggers but opportunities for our bottom-up, benchmark-agnostic approach focused on the compounding of high quality company fundamentals.

After unwinding COVID distortions, the health care sector has significantly underperformed the broader market. Yet it ranks high on our two favoured quality metrics, ROOCE and gross margins, with the second highest EPS growth of any sector in the MSCI World Index over the past 20 years. Its strong long-term outlook is reinforced by a rapidly ageing global population, untapped global market opportunities, the nondiscretionary nature of its demand, and broad technological innovation potential.

Consumer staples are now at a near 25-year low in terms of relative valuation and at their lowest weight in the MSCI World Index this century. Yet the sector has demonstrated resilience despite an exceptionally turbulent four years. With growth driven by recurring revenue from the everyday products they sell, their operating resilience during economic downturns gives staples companies that exhibit agility, innovation and high levels of brand investment a key role in our portfolios.

While calm has returned following summer’s brief market squall, the sell-off acted as a good test run for our global portfolios, which appeared resilient in the face of these fears, actually rising 1% while the MSCI World fell 7%. With a benign outlook priced in again as though the scare never happened, a portfolio delivering resilient earnings at a reasonable valuation may offer some high quality defence—as it did this summer.

While many of the companies we own are large businesses with well established, familiar brands, in our experience, excellent companies and investment opportunities can also be found by looking at players focused on specialised niches — particularly those that play a critical role within a market and enjoy close customer relationships. Undeservedly – but perhaps not surprisingly – these companies often sit outside the market limelight, and can fall between the cracks of sell-side coverage.

While society may be driven by immediate rewards, the International Equity team would argue that patience in investing leads to enduring results and positive long-term investment outcomes.

In a world of daily financial chatter, it’s easy to get distracted from what drives the core of long-term returns; the power of compounding. William Lock and Alistair Corden-Lloyd explain.